Gartner Says Replacement Indecision Will Cause Device Shipments to Decline 1 Per Cent in 2015
Forty-Four Per Cent of Current Tablet Users Are Planning for Alternative Options
Egham, UK, 23rd September 2015 — Worldwide combined shipments of devices (PCs, tablets, ultramobiles and mobile phones) are expected to reach 2.4 billion units in 2015, a 1 per cent decline from 2014 and down from the previous quarter's forecast of 1.5 per cent growth, according to Gartner, Inc. (see Table 1).
"Replacement activity across all types of devices has decreased," said Ranjit Atwal, research director at Gartner. "Users are extending the lifetime of their devices, or deciding not to replace their devices at all."
Gartner's latest device forecast also showed that shipments in all categories will contract in 2015, except for mobile phone shipments, which are on pace to increase 1.4 per cent in 2015. Smartphone shipments are estimated to increase 14 per cent in 2015. Emerging Asia/Pacific, including India and Indonesia, is on pace to show the strongest growth (43 per cent) in 2015, while Greater China will grow 3 per cent.
"By 2017, we estimate mobile phone shipments will reach the 2 billion mark, and smartphones will represent 89 per cent of the market," said Annette Zimmermann, research director at Gartner.
Table 1 Worldwide Devices Shipments by Device Type, 2014-2017 (Millions of Units)
|Traditional PCs (Desk-Based and Notebook)||277||247||234||226|
|Ultramobiles (Tablets and Clamshells)||226||199||208||218|
|Computing Devices Market||540||490||499||521|
|Total Devices Market||2,419||2,395||2,459||2,521|
Note: The Ultramobile (Premium) category includes devices such as Microsoft's Windows 8 Intel x86 products and Apple's MacBook Air.
The Ultramobile (Tablets and Clamshells) category includes devices such as, iPad, iPad mini, Samsung Galaxy Tab S 10.5, Nexus 7 and Acer Iconia Tab 8.
Ultramobiles — All Ultramobile Basic and Utility Devices.
Source: Gartner (September 2015)
The global PC shipment market is expected to total 291 million units in 2015, a decline of 7.3 per cent year over year, and to show flat growth in 2016.
"Until the end of 2015, currency devaluation and subsequent price increases will continue to restrain the replacement of ultramobiles premium and notebooks by businesses in particular," said Mr Atwal. "In 2016, we expect currency impacts will negate and while Windows 10 products on the Intel Skylake platform will increase in volumes throughout the year, Windows 10 adoption among businesses will ramp sharply in 2017, where we expect the PC market to return to a 4 per cent growth."
The ultramobile segment (tablets and clamshells) is also on pace to contract in 2015. Ultramobile shipments are estimated to total 199 million units in 2015, a decline of 12 per cent year over year. Tablet shipments are on pace to reach 192 million units in 2015, down 13 per cent from 2014.
"The tablet market is coming under increasing pressure," said Ms Zimmermann. "Users of tablets with a screen size between 7 and 8 inches are increasingly not replacing their devices." In addition, Gartner's new user survey conducted in June 2015 across six countries* found that 44 per cent of current tablet users are planning to substitute their tablets with a different device. It is potentially even higher for laptop users, as 54 per cent of them are intending to opt for an alternative device, including the highest percentage of undecided consumers (see Table 2).
Table 2 Buyers’ Substitution Plans
Source: Gartner (September 2015)
More information is available to Gartner clients in the reports “Forecast: PCs, Ultramobiles and Mobile Phones, Worldwide, 2012-2019, 3Q15 Update” and “Survey Analysis: Android, Windows, or iOS, It Is All About the Form Factor.”
The survey was conducted online in May and June 2015. A total of 19,000 consumers were asked about their technology usage and attitudes from the US, UK, France, China, Brazil, and India.
Gartner analysts will further discuss the future of mobility during Gartner Symposium/ITxpo 2015, 8-12 November in Barcelona, Spain. Additional information from the event will be shared on Twitter at http://twitter.com/Gartner_inc and using #GartnerSYM.
Upcoming dates and locations for Gartner Symposium/ITxpo 2015 include:
September 28-30, Cape Town, South Africa
October 4-8, Orlando, Florida
October 19-22, Sao Paulo, Brazil
October 26 - 29, Gold Coast, Australia
October 28-30, Tokyo, Japan
November 2 -5, Goa, India
November 8 - 12, Barcelona, Spain
About Gartner Symposium/ITxpo
Gartner Symposium/ITxpo is the world's most important gathering of CIOs and other senior IT executives. This event delivers independent and objective content with the authority of the world's leading IT research and advisory organization, and provides access to the latest solutions from key technology providers. Gartner's annual Symposium/ITxpo events are key components of attendees' annual planning efforts. IT executives rely on these events to gain insight into how their organizations can use IT to overcome business challenges and improve operational efficiency.
Gartner, Inc. (NYSE: IT) is the world's leading information technology research and advisory company. The company delivers the technology-related insight necessary for its clients to make the right decisions, every day. From CIOs and senior IT leaders in corporations and government agencies, to business leaders in high-tech and telecom enterprises and professional services firms, to technology investors, Gartner is the valuable partner to clients in approximately 10,000 distinct enterprises worldwide. Through the resources of Gartner Research, Gartner Executive Programs, Gartner Consulting and Gartner Events, Gartner works with every client to research, analyze and interpret the business of IT within the context of their individual role. Founded in 1979, Gartner is headquartered in Stamford, Connecticut, USA, and has 7,100 associates, including more than 1,500 research analysts and consultants, and clients in 90 countries. For more information, visit www.gartner.com